Cuba & Russia & Syria

This past Sunday, according to Reuters

Cuban President Raul Castro attended the opening of a Russian Orthodox Cathedral in Havana on Sunday in the latest sign of improved relations between Havana and Moscow.

The ceremony was part of activities in Cuba called the Day of Russia in Cuba... The event coincided with the anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, which brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.    

"This is a monument to Russian-Cuban friendship and all the efforts that have preserved our relations including the most difficult moments of the Cold War," said Metropolitan Kiril, member of the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Also (from Rick Santorum) a story about Russian missile defense for Syria.

Russia could follow through with plans to place air defense systems in Syria as a response to Israel's hosting of an advanced U.S. radar station, sources say.

Will gamesmanship between Russia and the US turn into the international crisis predicted ("Mark my words") by Senator Joe Biden to test the mettle of the soon-to-be-elected American President? Let's pray not, but the ingredients--NATO expansion, Georgia, the Middle East, Syria, Israel, Iran, and Cuba--are all there for a dangerous turn of events. Let's pray not.

Comments

[Stuart Koehl]

Short answer: Not really. See my various pieces on Russia over at the Daily Standard (scroll down to the bottom of this page:

http://www.theweeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/730xivlh.asp

for links.

Or you can read Chapter 9 in my recent book, "Ideas for America's Future: Core Elements of a New National Security Strategy".

Caveat--I did not write the whole book, and some of the chapters are garbage. But I did write Chapters 9, 10, 13 and 14, which are excellent; and I was either the major contributer or final editor of Chapters 12, 15, 16 and 17, which, as a result are pretty good.

[Stuart Koehl]

If you want my assessment of who is most likely to want to test the Anointed One, I would put my money on one of the following: North Korea, Iran, or Venezuela. Russia has problems of its own, China is playing the long game (and also has burgeoning problems of its own), Syria is a broken reed, and Cuba is marking time until Fidel dies and the New Order (whatever that may be) begins. But North Korea, Iran and Venezuela all feature ruling factions that have a highly exalted opinion of themselves and very limited understanding of the power of the United States, which are the classic ingredients for a misunderstanding that escalates into a crisis.

The Orthodox cathedral in Havana, by the way, was built to provide for the needs of the large Russian community on the island--they maintain all that Russian infrastructure Fidel got for free back in the Good Old Days. Now, of course, he has to pay for parts and maintenance--that's where the real money has always been.

[Stuart Koehl]

By the way, those Russian air defense systems aren't all that good, anyway. See here:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/10/tale_of_the_tape_usaf_vs_china.asp

Yeah, this is another shameless plug.

[labrialumn]

Other possibilities include the Red Guards invasion of Formosa, and Iran attacking Israel, with Barry Soetoro standing aside in both instances.

Others have also suggested a Russian invasion of Ukraina, with the US requesting Europe not to aid Ukraina.

Or there could be an engineered domestic crisis "requiring" rapid implementation of his domestic security force.

I don't doubt that Chavez envisions a Spanish-speaking Bolivarian Republic covering ultimately all of Latin America, but initially Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and a conquered Columbia.

[Stuart Koehl]

>>>Other possibilities include the Red Guards invasion of Formosa, and Iran attacking Israel, with Barry Soetoro standing aside in both instances<<<

Lots of dead Chinese in the water. Lots of dead Iranians in the desert. Neither country will have the capability to do what you propose within the next 8-10 years (covering both Obama terms, according to the Annointed One).

>>>Others have also suggested a Russian invasion of Ukraina, with the US requesting Europe not to aid Ukraina.<<<

That's not on, either. Ukraine is not Georgia; they have both the will and the means to fight back. And Poland will not stand by idly, even though Poles and Ukes can't stand each other. On top of that, Russia is broke, the military is out of gas, and they don't have the wherewithal to generate the combat power needed to invade Ukraine.

>>.Or there could be an engineered domestic crisis "requiring" rapid implementation of his domestic security force.<<<

That I could see, under an Obama "thugocracy". Don't look for the ACLU to raise a peep in objection, either.

>>>I don't doubt that Chavez envisions a Spanish-speaking Bolivarian Republic covering ultimately all of Latin America, but initially Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and a conquered Columbia.<<<

If Hugo Chavez has a carbon footprint five years from now, I will be greatly surprised. Like his friend Vladimir, he bet too much on peak oil, has overspent, and now has bills coming due that he can't pay. I hope they string him up from a lamp post.

[Nick]

Ah yes the fall of Venezuela from any position of influence over the next year or two will be delicious. Its too bad the Venezuelans will bear most of the initial expense. Though they did stupidly put the man in power.

[Stuart Koehl]

>>>Ah yes the fall of Venezuela from any position of influence over the next year or two will be delicious. Its too bad the Venezuelans will bear most of the initial expense. Though they did stupidly put the man in power.<<<

With oil headed for $50/barrel, Hugo is going to have trouble paying for all the mischief he wants to commit. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the consensus that Putin forged is falling apart. While the average Russian has not yet suffered from the collapse of the Russian financial and equity markets (Ivan Ivanovich does not own stock, has no savings, no debts and always pays cash), the oligarchs and the military are both feeling the squeeze. Many of Russia bigwigs have seen more than half of their fortunes evaporate, while more than 100,000 officers are being forcibly retired from the military. Soon, Ivan Ivanovich will begin to feel the pinch as money for social services and pensions get short, too. At that point, all three legs of the tripod that made the Faustian bargain with Putin (you let me do what I want, and I will provide peace and prosperity) will have fallen, and Tsar Vladimir and his puppet Medvedev will fall with it. What happens next is anyone's guess.